Will BJP cross 400+ or Congress gaining steam
The voting for the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 will end with the last and seventh phase of polling today, June 1. Today’s polling will decide the fate of 904 candidates, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi across 57 seats in seven states and a Union Territory.
What are Exit Polls?
An exit poll is a post-election survey predicting the anticipated winners and the margin of their victory. The predictions are based on voter feedback collected by survey agencies after the polling. While the idea behind the exit polls is to reflect public sentiment well before the actual results are announced, their accuracy has faced scrutiny in the past.
The Election Commision of India (ECI) will declare the final results on June 4.
When are the exit polls released?
The ECI prohibits conducting exit polls during the voting process, but they are allowed to be published 30 minutes after the last vote is cast.
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As per the rules, exit poll data cannot be released before 6:30 pm on June 1 the last round of polling. This is governed by Section 126A of the Representation of the People’s Act1951.
Where to watch exit polls?
Ideally, TV channels should begin releasing their projections by 6:30-7 pm on Saturday. These will also be live streamed on various social media platforms, including YouTube.
Many TV channel start publishing the exit polls with a different name or title even before the last phase of the election is over, perhaps, due to curiosity about which party could be the possible winner.
What happened in 2019, 2014?
In the Loksabha election, pollsters had predicted around 285 seats for the NDA. However, the BJP-led alliance won a landslide victory by winning 353 seats, with the BJP alone securing 303 seats. The Congress won 52 seats, and its UPA won 91 seats.
In the Lok Sabha Elections 2014, the NDA was estimated to win around 257-340 seats. However, the NDA won 336 seats.
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Experts say that the accuracy of exit polls has improved over the years.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi returning to power for a rare third consecutive term will boost shares of defence, infrastructure, railway and capital goods companies, the head of brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services said
History of exit polls
The first exit poll conducted in India was conducted in 1957 when the Indian Institute of Public Opinion carried out a post-poll survey during the second Lok Sabha elections.
The state-run broadcaster Doordarshan hired the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) to conduct exit polls across the country in 1996. After this, conducting surveys took off, and many players pitched in, most of them in tie-ups with TV channels.
The BJP-led NDA, seeking a record third term under PM Modi has set a target of winning 400 seats in the 2024 general election. The ruling alliance is challenged by the opposition parties led by the Congress under the banner of the INDIA bloc.
Investors in share market are bullish ahead of Lok Sabha Election results, hoping Modi’s return. But FII’s are cautious about it.
Congress has clarified that their spokesperson will not participate in any news channel debate on exit polls today.
Reuters report on stock on radar, read this:
Modi’s return will power India’s defence, infra stocks, Motilal Oswal’s Agrawal says | Reuters
