On Thursday afternoon the PLA said fighter jets carrying live missiles had successfully carried out “mock strikes” on Taiwanese military targets, those held in 2022 and 2023. Beijing did not declare any no-fly zones, and no live fire was used except in practice areas on the Chinese mainland, according to Taiwan’s military.
The ministry said China sent 19 warships around Taiwan’s perimeter, 16 marine police vessels and 49 warplanes, of which 35 crossed the median line, the de facto border between China and Taiwan.
In response, Taiwan scrambled jets, put its forces on alert, and moved anti-ship missile systems to coastal areas.
From a military base in Taoyuan on Thursday, Taiwan’s new president Lai Ching-te said he had confidence in the military to protect Taiwan. kuckad news.com
China’s official state news agency Xinhua said on Friday the drills were “legitimate, timely and entirely necessary, as ‘Taiwan independence’ acts in any form cannot be tolerated”.
Lai was inaugurated as president on Monday, after winning democratic elections in January. Lai and his predecessor, tsai-ing-wen, are from the pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive party (DPP), which Beijing considers separatist.
In his inauguration speech Lai affirmed Taiwan’s sovereignty, promised to defend it, and urged China to end hostilities. Any speech by a president belonging to the DPP, short of capitulating to Beijing’s position that Taiwan belongs to China, was likely to provoke.
A Xinhua editorial said his speech was a “serious provocation” and China’s countermeasures were “inevitable”.
“Lai has deliberately incited hatred toward the mainland and escalated confrontation and hostility across the Strait,” it said.
In an editorial, the official newspaper of China’s ruling Communist party, the People’s Daily, said it was a shared belief among Chinese people that the territory of the nation cannot be divided, the country cannot be thrown into chaos and its people cannot be separated.
A conflict over Taiwan would be catastrophic, and likely involve other countries in the region, and beyond. In response to the drills, representatives from Japan, the US, South Korea, and Australia called for calm. Australia’s foreign minister, Penny Wong, warned that “the risk of an accident, and potential escalation, is growing”. kuckad news.com
How significant are China’s military drills around Taiwan?
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The drills are the most significant since similar exercises were launched against Taiwan in August 2022 and April 2023. However they appeared smaller in scope, and did not involve live fire near Taiwan on the first day.
Military drills around Taiwan were widely expected this week. After a relatively muted reaction to Lai’s victory in January, analysts were on the lookout for a Chinese show of force in response to the inauguration on 20 May.
The deputy commander of the US Indo-Pacific command, Lt Gen Stephen Sklenka, said the drills were “concerning” but expected. “The normalisation of abnormal actions, that’s what’s happening,” Sklenka said.
Thursday’s exercises included coastguard vessels, which have been used increasingly for enforcement and military-adjacent purposes in recent years. After a collision between chinese boat and taiwan’s coastgaurd boat, near Kinmen in February, China responded with increased patrols and an explicit rejection of maritime borders which it had until then tacitly respected.
China has launched new drills encircling Taiwan. Why now? | CNN watch video by CNN
Is Beijing planning something?
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has made it clear that he sees resolving the “Taiwan question” as part of his legacy. Analysts and western intelligence mention dates as soon as 2027 as a deadline by which the PLA has been instructed to be ready for a conflict.
A PLA Defence University lecturer, Zhang Chi, told state media the northern sites of this week’s drills “sent a warning” to the ruling DPP. Zhang, who was not speaking on behalf of the PLA, said the eastern areas cut off Taiwan’s energy imports, support lines from the US and other allies, and “the escape route for Taiwan independence forces”.
Zhang’s comments were likely aimed at sending a message to international parties that the PLA took these drills very seriously, and to reassure domestic audiences of China’s strength and control.
There is increasing concern that rather than an all-out assault, Beijing will increase its less militaristic “greyzone” activities, which are harder for Taiwan and other interested parties to calculate a response to. These already include increased coastguard patrols around Taiwan’s outlying islands of Kinmen and Matsu, the shifting of flight paths to Taiwan’s side of the median line, and the frequent deployment of weather balloons – which are civilian but can also gather granular microclimate data which can assist in bombardment attacks – into Taiwan’s airspace. All activities that are arguably civilian, legal and difficult to respond to, but which still put pressure on Taiwan.
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